What Shrinking SNAP Enrollment Means for Walmart Suppliers

Aug 13

3 min read

SNAP enrollment is contracting, and the numbers are larger than most category-level coverage suggests. For suppliers with meaningful volume at Walmart, the SNAP enrollment decline is a demand-side shift worth building into forecasts now rather than reacting to at the next business review.

The SNAP enrollment picture

Circana reports that SNAP participation fell by roughly two million households over the past year, and projects that program changes will reduce EBT funding by about $10 billion in 2026 compared with 2025. The decline is driven mainly by eligibility and work-requirement changes — fewer participants, not smaller baskets per participant.

Circana also found that SNAP-funded baskets now account for about 7% of total retail food and beverage dollars, down from roughly 10.4% two years ago, with trip share falling from about 8% to under 6%.

That matters for how you model it. A benefit-per-household cut spreads pain thinly across a stable shopper base. A participation decline removes shoppers from the system entirely, which shows up as lost trips rather than smaller rings.

Where the category shifts show up

A growing number of states have added restrictions on what SNAP benefits can buy, generally targeting soda, candy, and energy drinks. Numerator projects these restrictions will reach 7.5 million households by the end of 2026, covering roughly a third of program participants.

Numerator estimates the categories at risk could lose up to $830 million in 2026 — up to $430 million in soda, $300 million in candy, and $100 million in energy drinks — across the states with restrictions in effect by year end.

Circana's measured results so far: soda incidence on SNAP trips is down roughly 8 points year over year nationally and 9 points in waiver states; candy is down 6 points in waiver states, energy drinks about 5. Note the national figure. If soda incidence is falling almost as fast outside waiver states as inside them, the restrictions aren't the primary driver — the shrinking, more budget-constrained SNAP population is. Suppliers watching only the restriction map are tracking the smaller variable.

Why Walmart absorbs more of this than anyone

Numerator's 2025 SNAP Evolution report put Walmart at 24% of SNAP shoppers' CPG and general merchandise spend — three times Kroger's 8% share, ahead of Costco at 6%, Amazon at 5%, and Sam's Club at 4%. Separate Numerator data shows 94% of SNAP shoppers spend at least something at Walmart, versus about 52% at Amazon and 49% at Kroger.

There is no scenario where SNAP volume declines and Walmart doesn't take the largest absolute share of it.

That compounds a mix problem management has already flagged. In February, CEO John Furner noted most of Walmart's share gains were coming from households earning above $100,000, while wallets under $50,000 were stretched. Q1 FY27 carried a $175 million fuel headwind and the company issued cautious Q2 guidance. Q2 FY27 results land August 20.

What this means for suppliers

• Model participation, not just restrictions. The projected $10 billion EBT reduction is larger and more durable than the category restrictions. Build your Walmart forecast off household counts, not the restriction map.

• Know your SNAP index by category. Exposure isn't uniform. Numerator found SNAP dollars in 10.6% of Post Consumer Brands trips, 8.4% of Tyson trips, and 7.7% of Conagra trips — if your items sit in similar baskets, the participation decline hits your velocity harder than a category average implies.

• Watch the August 20 call for low-income cohort commentary. Furner's read on sub-$50,000 households is the most useful public signal for anyone whose volume skews toward value shoppers.